I have realised that, without exception, my analysis of the likely result was wrong.   But I am intrigued that in the sweepstake that I took part in a fortnight ago everyone else was right.   Did they know something I didn’t ?  I assume it was that, based on the 1992 election, they knew to ignore the polls;  that people will wilfully mislead the pollsters;  and that when deciding whether to vote with their heart or their wallet, they will always vote with their wallet.