Unusually, I was at a dinner in which there was discussion about the likely outcome of the election and its consequences, to the extent that we were each required to write down the number of votes cast for the winning party. The majority of people who cast their votes before me thought that Cameron will win by a greater margin than currently predicted. This is based on an assumption that, in the poll booth, there will be a vote for economic stability, as opposed to the constitutional uncertainty of a coalition with the Scottish Nationalists. This may be wishful thinking. I am more cautious, only because I think that people underestimate the hostility to economic inequality and the desire to protect public services and that this will swing votes in the other direction.
| Charles | Saumarez | Smith | 
Dear Charles
I share your uncertainty about the Election.
At the beginning I was convinced that the Tories were going to be the biggest party and that another Coalition with the Lib Dems would be the outcome.
But I think things have shifted, Ed has had a pretty good campaign (he dealt well with Paxman and has looked far more credible as a possible PM than I’d feared), and Cameron rather a poor one (a foolish mistake to stake everything on being so negative and hostile about Miliband, and overplaying the SNP card?)
But I agree that in the Polling Booth many people will not feel convinced enough to change an Economy that, however hesitantly and marginally, is going in the right direction. It could be a repeat of 1992, when people wanted a change but, faced by the Ballot Paper, couldn’t bring themselves to vote out a govt that was beginning to turn the economic corner. I do hope I’m wrong but ……..
It could be a tense night, and will almost certainly lead to a prolonged period of uncertainty afterwards, as UKIP will poll a very large number of votes but will get fewer than 8 or 10 seats; we’ll be wiped out in Scotland, but may win some two way marginals in the North; and the Lib Dems will hold onto at least 25 seats where people opt for local MPs with good reputations.
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Dear Mark, Yes, I pretty much agree with your analysis, except that I think uncertainty about the role of the SNP in a coalition will be a factor, not just because Cameron is raising it. Charles